Despite the noise, easier policy and a softer dollar helped keep the bull market alive. Tech and cyclicals led the charge, while emerging markets enjoyed a tailwind from currency moves. For investors, this divergence in policy, Fed easing versus ECB caution and BoE’ s late-cycle cuts – has shaped global capital flows all year.
Trump’ s tariff playbook was back in full force. Duties on Chinese imports soared past 50 %, and Beijing retaliated by restricting exports of key minerals – deepening the chip war. Inflation flared early in the year, slowing consumer demand and complicating the Fed’ s job. The message for markets? Geopolitical risk isn’ t going away, and supply chain fragility remains a structural theme.
UK: No shocks, no drama – just caution
On this side of the pond, we’ ve had our own drama. Inflation eased to 3.6 % by October, giving the Bank of England room to cut rates – likely again in December. But uncertainty has always been lurking. Chancellor Rachel Reeves delayed her budget until late November, leaving markets guessing until just days ago. The fiscal“ black hole” hasn’ t gone away. However watching the markets and the budget live, again, it all seemed to be taken well in stride. No major announcements, no major changes, no taper tantrum, no mini-budget fiasco. Far more contained and measured than most had expected – but we do have a tendency to fear the worst!
UK equities have held up, but the outlook hinges on whether policy can provide some confidence heading into 2026. I want to see the FTSE 250 and AIM Markets thriving, and I’ m not entirely certain this budget delivered that at first glance.
Europe: Exporters thriving
Meanwhile on the continent, the ECB has kept rates at 2.15 % after earlier cuts, as inflation has cooled but growth has barely budged. Germany’ s DAX surged 30 %, while France’ s CAC stubbornly refused to move – a tale of two economies. Structural risks, from stablecoins to fiscal strains, are forcing the ECB to rethink its long-term playbook. For investors, Europe remains a selective story, strong exporters thrive, but domestic cyclicals lag.
Asia: EV boom and tech wars
In the east, China has stayed at the centre of global industrial policy. Tariffs and tech restrictions have hardened the US – China divide, but Beijing has doubled down on innovation. The EV market has exploded with China leading the charge. Battery breakthroughs and aggressive subsidies have put China ahead of neighbouring countries; Japan and Korea in next-gen mobility. For long-term investors, this is the structural shift to watch, electrification and tech sovereignty are rewriting the global growth map. You, like me, will be seeing all of the Chinese auto manufacturers on our roads
– big shifts from the traditionally European heavy roads we have seen. Rivalling in luxury and technology – I’ ll be watching with keen interest.
Commodities: Gold’ s glitter and silver’ s edge
Gold has stolen headlines, hitting $ 4,398 an ounce before pulling back. But here’ s the reality, adjusted for inflation, gold hasn’ t delivered the spectacular gains people think, it’ s mostly preserved it’ s value. For those chasing leverage, miners and silver have offered more upside, riding the wave of investor rotation into hard assets. Commodities have reminded us that nominal highs don’ t always equal real wealth creation.
Digital assets: Crypto goes mainstream
Bitcoin ETFs changed the game. Spot products now manage nearly $ 100 billion in assets, led by our large American cousins, this has been a big breakthrough for investors. As discussed with one of our advisers recently, this does however mean there is shift away from the original reason to hold crypto – that you want to avoid the fiat system, that you might believe in decentralisation. Crypto ETF’ s, like Gold ETF’ s, mean you can have the directionality without the complications or really buying into the whitepaper. Very interesting to watch happen. We really can commoditise anything, including decentralisation and anonymity.
Another fantastic year in the books for investors – mired with many stories and many strange happenings, political movements, economic policy, huge headlines and small headwinds. The investment market party keeps going – lets see if we can also get a little Santa rally in for December too to be the little cherry on top.
Will this good run continue? Who knows. The commentators keep talking about bubbles, and whether we are in one currently. The truth is, herd mentality will dictate whether this is to be true or not in future. No-one has blinked yet … the greater fool theory remains strong!
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December 2025 | 9