As we head into the final weeks of 2025, one thing stands out, markets have been remarkably resilient this year, in the face of political drama, policy pivots, and economic headwinds. From a frosty January inauguration in Washington to Asia’ s EV boom, this year has been anything but dull. Yet, despite the noise, investors have managed to find their footing.

The US: Was it all about the tariffs?

Donald Trump was welcomed back to the White House on a cold January morning. His speech was exactly what we’ ve come to expect from Trump; rambling, loose, and full of promises to“ put America first.” If I recall correctly, he even spoke about golfers and Dana White being in the crowd. Somehow, this excited markets, they reacted well to the 47th President. Hopes for tax cuts and deregulation gave equities a lift, but by February, tariff talk and inflation fears were back on the table, and volatility crept in.

Tariffs have been a hot topic this year, and we’ ll now always have the line chart to mark the full impact of this – the Tariff Tantrum – knocking trillions off of the markets before the tariff pause gave way to a rally that lasted a good chunk of the year.

Even a government shutdown wasn’ t enough to take the shine off of markets. In October a 43-day shutdown could have been the biggest news of the year, however it seemed rather benign. The surprise was not the shutdown; these happen it, more that it seemed to be a convenient way to trim government payrolls without calling it austerity. Trump even hinted at this on social media, fuelling speculation that the shutdown was more strategy than accident.

Markets were nervous about the economic data delay as a byproduct of the shutdown, which had started to weaken in the months running up to it, however, when we did eventually get the data it was broadly ok too. Jobs up, and unemployment up – a bit of a balancing act had prevailed. Some November nervousness and a slight“ sell-off” has subsequently seen a bounce back. The party keeps going!

The Fed: Walking the tightrope

Jerome Powell had a tough year. Inflation stayed sticky, hovering near 3 %, even as growth slowed. The Fed cut rates back to the 3.75 – 4 % range, but not without internal drama. Hawks warned about inflation risk; doves pointed to weakening labour markets. Add Trump’ s public threats to fire Powell, and you’ ve got a central bank under siege.

Fabian Wiesner Head of Distribution PartnershipsSimplybiz

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