2025 was a paradoxical year for global markets. On one hand, it was defined by anxiety: concerns about diversification efficacy, talk of frothy valuations in the artificial intelligence space, and persistent worries about political instability, particularly in the United States. On the other hand, markets behaved like the party simply wouldn’ t end. Equity indices climbed, sentiment held up, and investors continued to buy into the story of future growth.

As we move into 2026, the concerns feel similar, but the texture feels different. This year isn ' t characterised by new anxieties so much as the sense that the fuse has been burning quietly for some time. Political rhetoric is louder, consumers are more stretched, and geopolitics feels more openly transactional. Nobody is predicting a singular crisis, but few would deny that we are closer to something than we were a year ago.

The first and most obvious headline for markets in 2026 is the trajectory of global interest rates. After two years of rapid tightening, inflation has cooled, but not completely. Central banks are signalling cuts, but the degree and timing remain uncertain. Expectations are high, and markets have already priced in a meaningful easing cycle.

If we get those cuts, it may unlock additional liquidity and offer relief to households coming off fixed rates. It should support consumers on mortgages and give businesses more space to invest.

If we don’ t, disappointment could be sharp. Inflation that remains“ sticky” would deny both governments and households the breathing room they’ ve been waiting for. And it would complicate an already tricky generational divide with younger generations still struggling with wage growth and affordability, and older demographics benefiting more readily from accumulated wealth and higher-yield cash products.

Rate cuts are therefore both the most positive and negative risk in one. They are the most anticipated policy development of the year, and the one with the greatest potential for frustration.

My second‘ one to watch’ is AI, but not for the usual reasons. The conversation in 2025 was dominated by valuations, capex cycles, and whether or not the“ AI trade” constituted a bubble. In 2026, the more interesting question is what happens when a sector begins to feed on itself, both financially and in terms of content.

Fabian Wiesner, Managing Director Omni Invest

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